Summary
This report details the escalating conflict between the US and Iran, focusing on the IRGC's increasing influence and offensive strategy. It reveals secret US communications with IRGC commanders, bypassing traditional diplomatic channels, and highlights the IRGC's alleged plans to expand regional conflict. Additionally, the report casts doubt on Mojtaba Khamenei's actual power and physical condition, suggesting the IRGC dominates decision-making in Iran amid heightened tensions and a US call for Iran's surrender.
Key Insights
IRGC's integration into state structures aims to consolidate power.
The Wall Street Journal's report also suggests efforts by Mojtaba Khamenei to increase the IRGC's power by merging the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters into the Armed Forces General Staff and placing the Supreme National Security Council under Mohsen Rezaei.
US sought direct contact with IRGC Commander, bypassing diplomats.
The US news outlet Axios revealed that the US attempted to establish direct contact with the Commander-in-Chief of the IRGC, acknowledging uncertainty about whether diplomats like Araghchi and Ghalibaf truly represented the ultimate power holders in the Islamic Republic.
Information surrounding Mojtaba Khamenei is highly compartmentalized.
A former senior Iranian official stated that information is separated from Mojtaba at the highest level, to the extent that no electronic devices are used near him for fear of revealing his location, and handwritten messages are delivered by a courier.
Mojtaba Khamenei's decision-making role is minimal.
A former commander of Unit 8200 and former head of the Iran section in Israeli military intelligence suggested that Mojtaba has a small role in decision-making, acting at best as a rubber stamp. Critical decisions are likely made without his knowledge but attributed to him.
Sections
IRGC's Offensive Stance and Regional Expansion Plans
IRGC confirms readiness for offensive operations against the US and Israel.
The deputy political commander of the IRGC announced the readiness of this military institution for offensive operations against the United States and Israel, signaling a shift in strategy.
Iran's secret plan to expand regional war is revealed.
The Wall Street Journal reported on a secret plan by the Islamic Republic of Iran to expand the war in the region. This report, citing Arab intelligence officials, indicates increased cooperation between the IRGC's Quds Force and its allies in Iraq and Yemen.
IRGC commanders sent to Yemen to oversee Houthi operations.
According to the report, the IRGC has dispatched commanders to areas controlled by the Houthis, an Iranian-backed Yemeni militia, to supervise the deployment of missiles, naval weapons, and drone launches near the Red Sea.
IRGC provided targets in Saudi Arabia to the Houthis.
The IRGC has shared intelligence and a list of targets in Saudi Arabia, including several ports and energy facilities, with the Houthis.
IRGC's integration into state structures aims to consolidate power.
The Wall Street Journal's report also suggests efforts by Mojtaba Khamenei to increase the IRGC's power by merging the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters into the Armed Forces General Staff and placing the Supreme National Security Council under Mohsen Rezaei.
IRGC seeks to expand offensive operations against perceived enemies.
This move is seen as an effort to prepare for powerful offensive operations against the enemy, as stated in an order by Vahidi. This offensive approach has even extended to the regular army, with rewards offered for capturing or killing American soldiers.
US-IRGC Secret Communications Amidst Tensions
US sought direct contact with IRGC Commander, bypassing diplomats.
The US news outlet Axios revealed that the US attempted to establish direct contact with the Commander-in-Chief of the IRGC, acknowledging uncertainty about whether diplomats like Araghchi and Ghalibaf truly represented the ultimate power holders in the Islamic Republic.
KRG facilitated US communication with IRGC leadership.
On May 10th, the then-Director of National Intelligence contacted Nechirvan Barzani, President of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, to relay a US message directly to Ahmad Vahidi, the Commander-in-Chief of the IRGC. Four days later, Barzani communicated with Vahidi via a coded phone line provided by the IRGC.
IRGC Commander confirmed support for diplomatic positions.
The IRGC Commander confirmed his support for the negotiations and the positions taken by Araghchi and Ghalibaf.
KRG confirmed its role in mediating US-Iran messages.
The spokesperson for the Presidency of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq confirmed Nechirvan Barzani's role in transmitting messages between Tehran and Washington and in efforts to de-escalate tensions.
Iran denies US-Iran communications as media manipulation.
The spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Islamic Republic dismissed the reports as a media game and psychological tactic to create the impression of internal divisions within Iran's decision-making bodies.
KRG Prime Minister's office targeted by IRGC drones.
Masrour Barzani, Prime Minister of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, announced that his personal office and the intelligence agency's headquarters were targeted by Islamic Republic drone attacks, potentially as retaliation for the leak about the secret communication with Ahmad Vahidi.
Doubts Surrounding Mojtaba Khamenei's Power and Health
Uncertainty persists regarding Mojtaba Khamenei's health and actual rule.
Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth reported on the ambiguity surrounding Mojtaba's physical condition, questioning whether he truly rules Iran.
Information surrounding Mojtaba Khamenei is highly compartmentalized.
A former senior Iranian official stated that information is separated from Mojtaba at the highest level, to the extent that no electronic devices are used near him for fear of revealing his location, and handwritten messages are delivered by a courier.
Limited access to Mojtaba Khamenei hinders senior officials' meetings.
Since the US-Israeli attack on the leader's office on February 27th, no senior official has been able to meet with Mojtaba. There are conflicting accounts regarding his meetings, with claims of a 7-hour meeting versus a 2.5-hour meeting, fueling further ambiguity.
Allegations of food testing for Mojtaba Khamenei's safety.
The website Walla reported, citing a former senior Iranian official, that a 'bodyguard' tests Mojtaba's food an hour before he eats to ensure it is not poisoned. A doctor and nurse reportedly stay with him around the clock, not leaving the premises to minimize information leaks.
Mojtaba Khamenei's decision-making role is minimal.
A former commander of Unit 8200 and former head of the Iran section in Israeli military intelligence suggested that Mojtaba has a small role in decision-making, acting at best as a rubber stamp. Critical decisions are likely made without his knowledge but attributed to him.
IRGC dominates Iran's decision-making processes.
This Israeli intelligence official asserted that the IRGC is currently the dominant force in Iran's decision-making.
IRGC Consolidation of Power and US Response
Judiciary head consults with IRGC on significant changes.
The head of the judiciary announced significant changes within his institution with consultation from the IRGC, indicating the military group's pervasive influence.
Parliament passes a bill to increase domestic suppression under guise of intelligence.
When the parliament passed a plan to counter the influence of foreign intelligence agencies, it further facilitated domestic suppression, coinciding with what is described as the IRGC's 'creeping coup' to maximize its position in the Islamic Republic.
Trump reiterates demand for Iran's surrender due to WMD concerns.
At the end of the 60-day deadline for an agreement, Trump reiterated that the Islamic Republic must never obtain nuclear weapons and called on Tehran to raise the white flag of surrender.
US views IRGC as the true power, bypassing Iran's diplomats.
The US believes the IRGC holds the real power in Iran, which is why they sought direct communication with its commanders, as official diplomats might not represent the ultimate decision-makers.
Trump uses a cautious approach to gain time before elections.
Trump is employing a cautious strategy to buy time, aiming to reach the midterm elections and beyond, expecting Iran's leverage to diminish. He uses intermediaries like Barzani to maintain access to power holders and preserve his short-term advantage.
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